GMA: Lucky bitch or strategist?

At the height of the “Hello Garci!” Scandal, Congressman Joey Salceda (2^nd Dist., Albay) jokingly called then-President-and-now-House Speaker Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (GMA) as the “luckiest bitch”. Despite several impeachment complaints, she stood her post and was never removed like convicted plunderer Joseph Ejercito Estrada, or embattled Supreme Court Justice Renato Corona. But was she really a “lucky bitch”?

After stepping down from her post as President, she ran for Congress and spent most of her time in hospital arrest. But when the time came that she was acquitted of plunder, she immediately removed her neck brace that symbolized a fragile state not befitting even a minute in prison. This was followed by her rising in power leading to her installation as the new Speaker of the House of Representatives. Could these successive and favorable events just prove her being “lucky”?

If GMA is just lucky, the probability of randomness of the events favorable to her is very high. But then, there are patterns that suggest randomness is not remote. Some of these are as follows:

1. Politics is numbers so before stepping down from the presidency, she ensured the presence of enough allies that could be tapped in crucial times. In deciding her plunder cases, eight of the 11 Supreme Court Justices who acquitted her are her appointees. In Congress, majority of the 184 who elected her as Speaker of the House have been favored allies since the KAMPI days.
2. Apart from ensuring the presence of numbers, she carefully makes the necessary mathematical operations to make these numbers useful. During the 14^th Congress when the “Apat na Agila” of Camarines Sur were in fragile alliance, she was successful in making a seat for her , Datu Arroyo, by carving a Congressional District in the late Jesse Robredo’s province. This is also in addition to another son holding a partylist seat for a sector his son is never a member of.
3. She knows just how to read the signs and make them work on her favor. During her embattled presidency, she was able to harp on the weaknesses of the whistle blowers, and letting poorly crafted complaints filed to prevent more substantive ones. As a result, all the impeachment complaints became unsuccessful leading her to finish her term. Lately, when Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez has become complacent, GMA just knew what to do, and when to time her actions. In fact, her allies “hostaged” the State of the Nation Address of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte (PRRD) resulting in a stalemate. How could a strongman like PRRD ignore the SONA and receive negative impressions (i.e., of being a “weakling” for not controlling the House) in the international community? She learned a lot from experience during the “Hello Garci!” and has almost perfected Sun Tzu’s Art of War.
4.  She knows how to turn the flak to opportunity. A clear example is the controversial appropriations bill that inserted pork and fats. While initially drawing the issues around her P2.4 billion appropriations, she was able to ward the accusations off and point this to her number one critic during the “Hello Garci!” period – Budget Secretary Ben Diokno. Diokno is now in the hot seat for allegedly appropriating a bigger amount in Sorsogon, the province of her daughter’s in-laws.
5. But she also knows how to ride along and get legitimacy and eventually more support. When Estrada was ousted, she knew who to “party with” to the point that the national democrats have been chanting her name favorably. She knows how PRRD advocates for Federalism and Charter Change. She did not go against the tide but used it for surfing safely ashore. But is she serious of Federalism and charter change? Coming up with her own version of ChaCha implies that it is not her priority. Removing the Vice President in the proposed charter and offering an unlimited term for the elected officials would not be acceptable to the people. Now the people are harping on these provisions among others leaving a bad taste for the public. If she’s serious, why offer a bastardized version and shelving the work of the experts commissioned by PRRD? But she hooked PRRD and her daughter when she declared support for ChaCha.
6. GMA, however, is not a mortal version of Kronos, the Greek god and father of Zeus. She also know how to recognize value and reward them accordingly. We can make a long list of those who benefitted from her gratitude but the most recent example is Andaya, who, after giving way to Datu Arroyo, now the heads the powerful appropriations committee.

So, is  GMA a lucky bitch? Given the patterns enumerated above, she appears to be more of a strategist.